21 October 10:30-12:00 CEST

Socioeconomic Transitions

What drives acceleration in socioeconomic transitions, and what can slow it down? 

Tipping points are increasingly used to understand how low-carbon transitions can move from incremental change towards rapid, self-reinforcing acceleration. But what actually drives this acceleration, how long does it last, and what factors can constrain or slow transitions down?

In this webinar, researchers explore these questions from complementary perspectives on socio-technical transitions. Drawing on research on energy and net-zero transitions, they will examine how interacting technological, economic, policy and social feedbacks can accelerate low-carbon innovations and contribute to the decline of incumbent systems.

At the same time, the discussion will consider how counteracting socio-political feedbacks and necessary changes in infrastructure, institutions and supply chains can limit acceleration, as well as how transition dynamics can spread across interconnected socio-technical systems.

Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP’s Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a discussion on the dynamics behind socioeconomic tipping points, and what they can tell us about accelerating the transition towards a safe and sustainable future.

Agenda

  • Frank Geels (Manchester University): A socio-technical transitions perspective on tipping points and acceleration: Some cautionary reflections on negative feedbacks, transition phases, and potential slowdowns
  • Cameron Allen, (Monash University):  Beyond tipping points: acceleration mechanisms and tipping dynamics in low-carbon transitions
  • Followed by a moderated discussion with Sibel Eker, (IIASA)

Back to series overview.

A recording of the webinar will be available afterwards.

Speakers

Frank Geels
Manchester University

Geels is a world-leading scholar on sustainability transitions in energy, mobility, buildings, and agri-food systems. He published 7 books and 119 peer-reviewed journal articles, including in Science (2x), Nature Climate Change (3x), Nature Sustainability (2x), the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (5x) and Research Policy (17x). He received multiple awards and honours, and was selected in the 2014, 2019-2025 Highly Cited Researchers lists.

He was a lead author of the Working Group III contribution to the 2022 IPCC report, was a member of the Scientific Committee of the European Environment Agency (2016-2024), and has written invited reports for the European Commission, OECD, World Bank, European Environment Agency, and the UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

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Cameron Allen
Monash University

Dr Cameron Allen is an interdisciplinary scientist and Senior Research Fellow in the Sustainability Transitions Lab at Monash University, where he is also the Capability Lead on Transition Pathways and Modelling. Cameron's current research funded by the Australian Research Council (ARC) investigates the social, political and technological dynamics in the acceleration of net zero transitions combining socio-technical transitions research with systems modelling. He is also chief investigator for an ARC Discovery project modelling sustainable economic and post-growth climate futures for Australia. His research spans sustainability transitions, systems modelling, policy and governance, with publications in leading interdisciplinary sustainability journals including Nature, Science, Nature Sustainability, Nature Communications and One Earth.

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Sibel Eker
IIASA

Sibel Eker is a Senior Research Scholar in the Sustainable Service Systems Research Group at IIASA. Her interdisciplinary research combines systems analysis, decision sciences, and social sciences, with a focus on climate change, sustainability, and uncertainty. Her current work explores demand-side climate mitigation, sustainable diets, and the co-production of mitigation and sustainability scenarios using integrated assessment models.

She is a Lead Author of UNEP’s Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) and a member of the Global Young Academy. Eker has also worked with policy and research organizations including the World Bank, the UK government, and Climate Interactive, where she contributed to the C-ROADS and En-ROADS climate policy simulators.

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All you need to know

This event is part of a series of online discussions aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community and develop a research agenda.

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission, which is hosted by Future Earth and the Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP).

Organized by

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES)

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.

Future Earth

Future Earth is a global network of scientists, researchers, and innovators collaborating for a more sustainable planet. Future Earth initiates and supports international collaboration between researchers and stakeholders to identify and generate the integrated knowledge needed for successful transformations towards societies that provide good and fair lives for all within a stable and resilient Earth system. Future Earth is the host of the Earth Commission.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)is an international research institute that advances systems analysis and applies its research methods to identify policy solutions to reduce human footprints, enhance the resilience of natural and socioeconomic systems, and help achieve the sustainable development goals.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) is advancing the frontier of integrated research for global sustainability, and for a safe and just climate future. A member of the Leibniz Association, the institute is based in Potsdam, Brandenburg and connected with the global scientific community. Drawing on excellent research, PIK provides relevant scientific advice for policy decision-making. The institute’s international staff of about 400 is led by a committed interdisciplinary team of Directors.

University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute

The Global Systems Institute (GSI) is thought-leading in understanding global changes, solving global challenges and helping create a flourishing future world together, through transformative research, education and impact. GSI's aim is to work with others to secure a flourishing future for humanity as an integral part of a life-sustaining Earth system. GSI's aim to be a ‘go to’ place for global change researchers from around the world, bringing them together with industry, policymakers, students and other stakeholders to tackle shared problems, and acting as a catalyst that enables translation of this research into applications that deliver tangible and sustainable social and ecological benefit.

WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity.

The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial.